Business sales projections

I read in the paper (Oakland Tribune, April 1, 2011) that a Morgan Stanley analyst said that "Electric vehicles may rise to 5.5 percent of global sales by 2020 and more than 15 percent by 2025." Meanwhile J.D.Power predicts that "Electric vehicles will make up 2 percent of the global market by 2020".

I have two problems with these predictions. One is that, if the predictions are true, we will add at least another 20 parts per million (ppm) of CO2 to the atmosphere by 2020 (at the current rate of adding 2 ppm per year). Since the climate is already behaving chaotically with the current 390 ppm, that is going to make matters much worse.

On the more optimistic side, I just can't imagine people continuing to buy leafblower cars once they drive an electric car. At least 1/3 of the U.S. population believes that global warming is a serious problem, so this is a huge potential market. Even bigger is the fact that electric car prices are coming down and gas prices are going up. When people realize that it's cheaper to drive an electric car, there is no reason for them to buy comparable gasoline cars, even if they are a global warming doubter.

This is the concept of a tipping point--where the forces for change outweigh the forces resisting change and you get an avalanche, an earthquake, a new baby, a revolution, or . . . no more internal combustion engine cars. I think $4 per gallon is already over the tipping point as soon as more electric cars hit the market. If gas keeps going up 5% per year for another 10 years that will put gas at $6.50 per gallon. By that point I would argue that gasoline engine cars (not counting extended range plug-in electric vehicles like the Volt) will be dinosaurs.